Most tokens die. Now you can price it.
Arcy is a prediction market on token survival. Take a side on whether a token still meets its liquidity floor at the deadline. Settled on-chain, in USDC, by the contract.
Built on Arc · Settled in USDC · No protocol token
The trade nobody can make.
Every memecoin market gives you one instrument: direction. Buy, or don't.
But direction isn't what most people have an opinion about. An hour after launch, half the chat is saying the same thing — this doesn't last a week. That's a conviction, it's often well-informed, and there is no way to express it. The person who correctly calls a token dead on arrival is paid exactly the same as the person who never looked at it.
Credit markets price default. Insurance exists. The most failure-prone asset class ever invented prices nothing. Arcy is the missing instrument.
How it works
A question
Every market asks one thing about one token: will it still meet its liquidity floor at the deadline? The floor and the deadline are fixed when the market opens and can never change.
A side
Stake USDC on survival or on failure. Your stake enters the market whole — nothing is deducted to participate.
A settlement
At the deadline the contract reads the pool and pays the winning side. Winners get their stake back in full, plus the losing pot less a 2% rake.
Nobody can decide the outcome. Not even us.
Most prediction markets die at resolution. The event happens, and then a committee, a token vote, or a dispute window decides what happened. Every one of those is a place to be captured.
Arcy only asks questions a contract can answer alone. Pool liquidity is on-chain. The deadline is a block timestamp. At settlement the contract reads the pool, compares it to the floor, and pays. There is no oracle, no dispute period, and no admin key that can settle a market differently than the chain says it resolved.
We choose which markets exist. We cannot choose how they end.
Why Arc
Interacting with a market costs a predictable number of cents, not a volatile token. Small positions stay viable.
Stakes, payouts, odds. You cannot be right about the outcome and lose money because your collateral moved.
Odds reprice at the speed of the thing they track.
What we charge
Nothing to enter. Nothing to be refunded. If a market voids, you get 100% of your stake back.
A 2% rake is taken at settlement, from the losing pot only — the money that was always going to change hands. Winners keep their entire principal. Every payout shown in the interface is already net of it.
Early access
Signing up gets you access to the private testnet beta for the first cohort, and whitelisting for the first mainnet markets.
There is no protocol token, no airdrop, and no allocation of any kind.